EnergyTrend says that the average spot price of mono-grade dense polysilicon was RMB175/kg (US$25.54) as of January 4. Two days later, on January 6, Shanghai Metals Market put the average price of mono-grade dense polysilicon between RMB150 and RMB165/kg (US$21.89 and US$24.08).
Bernreuter Research, a market research company, said that the average price for 21 December 2022, when the price drop started, was RMB223.4 (US$32.60). Up until this point, the price had been going in almost the same direction as it had during the same time last year leading up to Christmas.
InfoLink, a research company, says that even though the price of polysilicon has dropped, the supply and production have continued to grow. Since the price is likely to keep going down for the next two weeks, most of this supply will probably just sit there while buyers wait for the right time, so they don’t lose money on their stock.
InfoLink also said that some tier-two and tier-three manufacturers may cut production in response to low prices, making it harder for them to fill orders as the price gap between tier-one companies and others grows.
Bernreuter Research says that because of the extra production, the price of 182mm M10 monocrystalline wafers dropped 27% between mid-November and December 21. As of the last few days of December, prices for M10 wafers had dropped by 48% since November, which is almost half. The drop has put pressure on the price of polysilicon, which has also gone down by 39% in the same time period.
Wafer makers have started to lower their utilisation rates to get rid of their extra stock instead of making more. This is likely to take pressure off wafer prices. China will also stop making things for a short time during the Lunar New Year holiday.
Bernreuter said that this will cut demand for polysilicon in the short term. However, he said that the price drop is likely to stop when the surplus of polysilicon shrinks and companies that use it have to restock. This will happen by the end of the month, according to predictions.
The price of a cell phone has also gone down, by about 15% in the last week. The same is true here, where most manufacturers are expected to cut their utilisation rates to between 70 and 80% for the Lunar New Year, which will slow the price drop.
Module prices fell, but not as much as they did at first because the waves are spreading out.
