Solar module prices are set to rise in the coming months as the industry moves toward stability after a long period of price drops and oversupply. According to Yana Hryshko, head of Solar Supply Chain Research at Wood Mackenzie, prices for Tier 1 solar modules could increase to $0.14 to $0.15 per watt by the end of 2025.
This shift is largely being driven by China’s production policies and market consolidation efforts. The Chinese government has encouraged self-discipline among manufacturers, limiting overall production to around 650 GW this year to match the expected global demand of 600 GW to 700 GW. While Tier 1 manufacturers are maintaining capacity, they have reduced production output since December, contributing to a controlled supply.
Why Are Prices Increasing?
One of the biggest factors behind the price hike is the expected shutdown of non-Tier 1 manufacturers, especially those still relying on older technologies like PERC and low-efficiency TOPCon. According to Hryshko, up to 300 GW of wafer, cell, and module capacity could disappear, mainly from companies that lack advanced technology or vertical integration. Unlike Tier 1 manufacturers, these companies are unlikely to be bailed out, and many could either shut down or shift to other industries.
Additionally, raw material prices are rising, starting with polysilicon, which has already seen an upward trend. With wafer and cell prices expected to follow, module prices will inevitably increase. Suppliers, especially those who suffered heavy losses in recent months, are looking to recoup their investments, which means buyers will soon have to pay higher prices for solar panels.
What’s Next for Solar Technology?
The solar industry is also undergoing a major technological shift. Older PERC technology is expected to be completely phased out by the end of 2025, and no new TOPCon manufacturing facilities have been announced in China this year. Instead, the focus is shifting towards heterojunction (HJT) and back-contact technologies, which offer higher efficiency and better long-term performance.
With this transition, the market is likely to stabilize, and module prices could return to pre-pandemic levels. Hryshko predicts that solar module prices will range between $0.12 and $0.15 per watt by the end of 2025, depending on the technology used.
What It Means for the Solar Industry
For the first time in months, module prices are expected to match production costs, bringing some much-needed balance to the industry. While low-quality, cheap modules are still circulating in the market, they will likely disappear over time as manufacturers phase out outdated technology and focus on higher-efficiency products.
This price correction will also impact solar project developers and consumers. While the cost of solar panels may rise slightly, the industry is moving toward a more sustainable pricing model, ensuring that manufacturers can continue innovating and producing high-quality products.
With these changes, 2025 is shaping up to be a turning point for the global PV market, with stronger companies leading the charge and a renewed focus on cutting-edge solar technology
