PF Infolink forecasts polysilicon prices to decrease from around CNY 300 ($36.64, excluding VAT)/kg currently to below CNY 150/kg by the end of 2023, it revealed in a joint webinar with analysts Exawatt and Rothcapital partners.
Prices are expected to decline gradually in the first half of 2023 and then see a steep decline in the second half of the year. The consulting firm expects polysilicon production capacity to increase from 293 GW earlier this year to around 500 GW by the end of 2022, spiking to 975 GW by the end of 2023. However, “there will likely be a meaningful lag between nameplate and effective capacity,” a company statement reads.
China is likely to remain the world’s largest polysilicon producer for the foreseeable future, with both PV Infolink and Exawatt predicting non-China polysilicon to represent up to 10% of total global capacity. Following the Uyghur Forced Labor Prevention Act (UFLPA) in the US, the country is expected to increase polysilicon production. Other countries are also ramping up or starting production, including Norway, Turkey, and Germany. Both firms expect prices for polysilicon from outside of China to be higher by between 5% and 10%.
PV Infolink predicts that it will take between two to three years of operation for new entrants to be competitive with established players like Chinese manufacturers in terms of capacity, yield rate, and purity.
Cell, wafer, and module prices are also predicted to decrease. PV Infolink expects cell pricing to be roughly $0.16/W through 2022 and fall slowly next year to around $0.10/W by year-end. It puts current pricing for a 210 mm mono wafer at around $0.21/W, which could fall to around $0.13/W by end 2023. Module pricing may fall slightly to between $0.22 to $0.23/W at the end of 2023 from the current $0.25 to $0.27.
