Wood Mackenzie has forecasted that solar module prices will rise by up to 9% in the fourth quarter of this year.
Yana Hryshko, senior research analyst and head of Global Solar Supply Chain at Wood Mackenzie, said:
“For the last 18 months, developers have benefited from solar modules and energy storage systems being sold at rock bottom prices by Chinese manufacturers attempting to shift excess supply. However, this is about to change. The Chinese government has intervened to stabilize the market, and developers globally will have to adjust their procurement expectations accordingly.
“Module prices reached historic lows of $0.07 to $0.09 per watt in 2024 and early 2025, which I would describe as a turning point. Manufacturers have already warned international customers to expect approximately 9% price increases in Q4 as a result of the VAT rebate cancellation. With no possibility of alternative supply in the short term, developers will have little choice but to absorb these higher costs.
“Polysilicon makers are currently operating at only 55% to 70% utilization, while cell and module manufacturers have seen their utilization drop to 55% to 60% by mid-2025. On top of that, the removal of the 13% VAT export rebate will also affect battery prices, which are expected to climb by a similar percentage.
“We see this as a structural correction away from destructive price wars toward sustainable margins.
